000 AXNT20 KNHC 291043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND GUYANA ANALYZED FROM 13N59W TO INLAND NEAR 5N60NW MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...DRY NW FLOW IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS ABOVE IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE... ALLOWING FOR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 8N. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA ALONG 70W S OF 14N W AT 5-10 KT. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W SW ALONG 6N20W 4N30W 4N40W 3N50W 4N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 21W...AND W OF 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. CONSEQUENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...RIDGING REFLECTS ACROSS THE AREA...CENTERED OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE BASIN BY A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 29N85W. THE OUTPUT OF THESE CONDITIONS BRINGS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING ...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST S OF 26N E OF 83W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HAZY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF SMOKE FROM THE SOUTHERN MEXICO WILDFIRES. MARINE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NW BASIN INDICATED VISIBILITIES BELOW 10 SM WITH A FEW STATIONS DOWN TO 5 SM. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND LIFT N OF THE BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN... EXCEPT FOR THE SW BASIN...WHERE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THIS REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN THIS REGION...NOTICED ON TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 18N W OF 73W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W NE TO 14N76W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SW BASIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WEST ATLC W OF 61W KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY FAIR THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND 32N55W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL ATLC...ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N60W...A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 24N57W...AND A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 25N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST LOW ALONG 30N50W TO THE LOW CENTER...CONTINUING SSW ALONG 22N48W TO 20N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 18N BETWEEN 40W-50W...ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT...COINCIDING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ON MODEL DATA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 40W. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA