000 AXNT20 KNHC 290534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND GUYANA ANALYZED FROM 13N58W TO INLAND NEAR 5N60NW MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE AXIS IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...DRY NW FLOW IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS ABOVE IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE... ALLOWING FOR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 10N. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA ALONG 70W S OF 14N W AT 5-10 KT. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS OCCURRING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W SW ALONG 6N20W 4N30W 4N40W 2N50W 4N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 33W...AND W OF 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. CONSEQUENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING REFLECTS ACROSS THE AREA...CENTERED OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE BASIN BY A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W. THE OUTPUT OF THESE CONDITIONS BRINGS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST S OF 26N E OF 83W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. HAZY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF SMOKE FROM THE SOUTHERN MEXICO WILDFIRES. MARINE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NW BASIN INDICATED VISIBILITIES BELOW 10 SM WITH A FEW STATIONS DOWN TO 5 SM. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND LIFT N OF THE BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE SW BASIN...WHERE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THIS REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN THIS REGION...NOTICED ON TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 16N W OF 74W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT SUGGESTING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SW BASIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR WEST ATLC KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY FAIR THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND 32N55W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE S CENTRAL ATLC...ANALYZED AS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N60W...A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 27N55W...AND A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 25N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERNMOST LOW ALONG 26N63W TO 25N68W. THIS TROUGH...NOR THE ASSOCIATED LOW IS PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED FROM 27N53W TO THE EASTERNMOST LOW...THEN SW ALONG 21N51W TO 18N55W. DESPITE THE LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W...ASSOCIATED TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF AN AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK REGION N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 40W. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA