000 AXNT20 KNHC 271743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 10N MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED INVERTED V STRUCTURE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SURGE OF MOISTURE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDING TO 11N. HOWEVER...LITTLE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 12N JUST SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONGER MOISTURE SIGNAL THAN THE PREVIOUS WAVE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE VALUES EXTENDING 13N. A WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS CONVERGING WINDS NEAR THE AXIS WITH STRONGER WINDS E OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SRN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W ALONG 5N25W 2N40W 4N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 11W-18W...FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-24W...AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 35W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CLIPS THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO GALVESTON TEXAS. HOWEVER...WHILE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPOTTING MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BESIDES STRONGER 15-20 KT SE FLOW ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. LIGHT SMOKE IS ALSO STILL EVIDENT ACROSS THE SW GULF DUE TO WILDFIRES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND HONDURAS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO LIFT N OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SEEPING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. SMOKE IS PRESENT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DUE TO WILDFIRES OVER NW HONDURAS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DOES EXTEND FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA ALONG 11N NEAR HIGH MOISTURE VALUES THAT HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 71 NEAR THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE WHICH MAY RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A TROPICAL WAVE SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE WAVE MOVES WNW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY FAIR W OF 60W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO ALONG 60W. FARTHER E...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 31N49W SUPPORTING A PAIR OF WEAKENING 1016 MB SURFACE LOWS NEAR 31N56W AND 29N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SECOND LOW ALONG 27N50W 26N55W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS AROUND THE SYSTEM ALONG 30N46W 25N46W 21N53W 20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE AXIS E OF 50W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS W OF 50W. ACROSS THE FAR E ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES WITH AN AXIS ALONG 35W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N15W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 27N21W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON