000 AXNT20 KNHC 261744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 11N53W 8N54W 5N54W. THIS WAVE WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH THE USE OF LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND CONVECTION CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE AFRICAN COAST. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENE AT ABOUT 10 KTS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N10W ALONG 5N17W 5N26W 3N38W 4N47W 4N52W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-27W...FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 30W-40W...AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 41W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM JUST E OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...AS OF 1500 UTC. THE FRONT IS MOSTLY DRY OVER WATER WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINING INLAND. SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC...AND DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT EXCEPT FOR A STRIP OF UPPER MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SMOKE W OF 92W DUE TO WILD FIRES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND HONDURAS. LIGHT WINDS ARE ACROSS THE ERN GULF WITH 10-15 KT SE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF BECOMING SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL AND THEN LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ERN CONUS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER NE VENEZUELA. THIS AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. FARTHER S...A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO 12N78W IN AN AREA OF PERSISTENT HIGH MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IS N OF VENEZUELA INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A WINDSAT PASS FROM 1020 UTC ALSO INDICATES THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE PRESENT ALONG 65W. THIS MOST LIKELY IS CAUSING THE CONVECTIVE FLAIR OVER INLAND VENEZUELA AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN AS THIS AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES WWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC CENTERED AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 35N64W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WHICH IS CAUSING AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 68W-72W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 60W. THIS PATTERN HAS FORMED AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 31N47W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1014 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ALONG 27N52W 24N52W 23N58W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N46W 25N46W 20N55W BECOMING A SHEARLINE TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE SHEARLINE AND ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 23N. N OF 23N...SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 220 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE DIFFLUENCE ZONE AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ACROSS THE FAR E ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES WITH AN AXIS ALONG 35W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 33N16W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 26N21W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON