000 AXNT20 KNHC 261136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 3N30W 2N40W...REACHING THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 3S TO 7N BETWEEN 34W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE 1S TO 6N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W...INCLUDING IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS FROM BRAZIL TO EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/ 52W FROM THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA TO 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...AND TEXAS IS APPROACHING THE TEXAS GULF COAST. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO LOUISIANA... AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING UP WITH TIME DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N67W TO 29N79W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N91W...TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AWAY FROM THE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 76W SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N TO 16N. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N IN COLOMBIA TO 13N IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W IN LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 75W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS PERSIST IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEING IN THE AREA THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N79W TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N47W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 48W AND 80W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N45W 23N48W 20N55W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N55W TO 19N64W INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W...AND FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N17W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 27N20W TO 17N29W. A 1012 MB LOW CENTER ALSO IS ON TOP OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...FROM 23N20W...OVER COASTAL MOROCCO...BEYOND 33N8W. IT IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 35W...BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE 30N45W 20N55W SURFACE TROUGH...FROM 10N BEYOND 32N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT