000 AXNT20 KNHC 251738 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 3N40W 5N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 21W-38W IS WITHIN 175 NM TO THE S OF THE AXIS AND WITHIN 120 NM TO THE N OF THE AXIS...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 40W-47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE ITCZ SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ANALYZED FROM 4N51W TO 9N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 47W-49W..AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 50W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO. NW FLOW AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. SMOKE ALSO REMAINS OVER THE W GULF FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GALVESTON FROM MEXICO WILDFIRES. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLANTIC IS OVER THE GULF PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SE WINDS ARE IN THE E GULF...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE IN THE W GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE CARIBBEAN CREATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH SUPPORTS POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 16N79W TO 9N75W EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 74W-80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-15N ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND N OF 17N ALONG PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE S WINDWARD ISLANDS AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW AND E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 16N W OF 86W FROM WILDFIRES IN HONDURAS. SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AFRICAN DUST HAS REACHED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 73W TO FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REST OF THE W ATLC W OF 52W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 19N-28N BETWEEN 66W-73W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 33N67W. AN UPPER CLOSED LOW AND UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 41W-52W SUPPORTING A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N55W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 25N54W 24N56W 24N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH E OF 55W AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH W OF 55W. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N50W 25N47W 21N52W 18N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS W OF 55W...AND FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 38W-49W. FARTHER E...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 11N E OF 44W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. ALOFT...ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE E ATLC S OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS TO THE N NEAR 32N25W SUPPORTING A 1012 MB LOW N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 33N17W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 32N11W TO 28N17W. A SECONDARY SURGE DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N18W 28N22W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST E OF 28W FROM 10N-21N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MONTALVO/WALTON