000
AXNT20 KNHC 250004
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 3N30W 2N40W 4N52W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN  
20W-30W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 21 UTC...A SURFACE 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N83W 
COMBINED WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVELS IS 
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE GULF. WINDS ARE 
DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND ARE IN A RANGE OF 5-25 KT WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS BEING W OF 90W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER HAZY SKY W OF 92W AS SMOKE FROM 
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. PERIODS 
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE 
CARIBBEAN IS CREATING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-INLAND 
OVER CUBA E OF 81W...OVER LA HISPANIOLA AND SOME REGIONS OF 
PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP 
LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUES BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AND EXTENDS 
FROM 15N79W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
ARE WITHIN 35 NM MOSTLY TO THE N SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SMOKE 
CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 87W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES 
THE AREA OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NW REGION OF THE 
CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN W OF 80W AND THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...EXPECT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO PERSIST IN THE 
W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE 
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD DUE TO DIFFLUENT WINDS IS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 70W-77W. IN THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT A VIGOROUS UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N48W WHICH SUPPORTS A 1008 MB SURFACE 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N55W. TWO SURFACE TROUGH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS LOW. ONE EXTENDERS FROM 27N54W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 25N58W AND 
NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N54W 29N48W 22N47W 17N57W. AS OF 21 
UTC...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E 
OF THIS TROUGH N OF 20N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 10N57W 
TO 5N55W. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME 
NEAR THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE LOW N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IS 
SUPPORTING ANOTHER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO 29N15W. POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC THIS EVENING. EXPECT 
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY 
WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST AND 
EAST QUADRANTS OF THE LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS