000
AXNT20 KNHC 241725
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N12W 4N30W 3N40W 4N51W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 4W-12W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 14W-18W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N 
BETWEEN 20W-33W...AND ALONG THE NE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 1N-6N 
BETWEEN 50W-53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE 
SURGE FROM THE ITCZ SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY 
ANALYZED FROM 6N54W TO 10N55W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. 
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF W OF 86W ANCHORED IN THE E 
PACIFIC REGION W OF ACAPULCO. NW FLOW AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT 
REMAINS OVER THE GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. SMOKE ALSO 
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF W OF 91W FROM MEXICO WILDFIRES. A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLANTIC IS OVER THE GULF 
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE 
E-SE WINDS ARE IN THE E GULF...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE 
WINDS ARE IN THE W GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE 
CARIBBEAN CREATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 
74W-81W. A SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
15N80W TO 11N74W EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP LAYERED 
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N ALONG 
PUERTO RICO AND THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW AND E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SMOKE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 86W. 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE W/CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SMALL UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 54W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS SW FROM A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 35N69W. AN UPPER CLOSED LOW 
AND UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N BETWEEN 44W-54W SUPPORTING A 1008 MB 
SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N55W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 
29N50W 25N46W 20N49W TO 17N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200-300 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 
20N...WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 20N. FARTHER E...A 
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 11N E OF 43W 
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES.  ALOFT...ZONAL WLY 
FLOW COVERS THE E ATLC S OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS TO THE 
N NEAR 32N25W SUPPORTING A SURFACE N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 
32N16W TO 28N18W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/WALTON