000 AXNT20 KNHC 232344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N14W 03N28W 01N37W 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 40W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF CENTERED NEAR 24N83W WITH AXIS ALONG 82W STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD E OF 82W WHILE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 18N102W IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE GULF WITH MODERATELY DRY N-NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS PROMOTING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY CLOUDLESS SKIES THIS EVENING W OF 82W. CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY E-SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING AND THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 28N/29N. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER HAZY SKY AS SMOKE FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W. PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A BASE OVER HONDURAS. VERY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE W OF 84W AND AS A RESULT CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES ADVECTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO 15N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 71W-82W. MORE ENHANCED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING WHICH COINCIDES WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. ELSEWHERE...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES ARE EXPERIENCING FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N83W...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC THIS EVENING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA WHICH CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND AREAS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 70W CONTINUE TO SUPPORTS A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N73W. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N54W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED AS 1009 MB...CENTERED NEAR 28N55W. FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CONTINUES TO FADE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PAIRED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN 39W-53W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN