000
AXNT20 KNHC 231758
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N13W 3N30W 5N40W 6N54W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 
14W-19W...FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 24W-26W...FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 
41W-48W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 50W-55W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER 
FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF W OF 86W ANCHORED 
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION W OF ACAPULCO. SOMEWHAT DRY STABLE AIR 
ALOFT REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. 
DENSE SMOKE ALSO REMAINS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. A LESS DENSE 
AREA OF SMOKE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE 
E GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF GIVING 
MOST OF THE GULF SE SURFACE FLOW AND LEAVING THE AREA UNDER 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS 
ARE IN THE E GULF...WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE IN THE 
W GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 78W-83W. DRY 
STABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN 
LEAVING THE AREA W OF 83W UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS 
AFTERNOON. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W ANCHORED SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A 
SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 14N78W TO 
11N76W EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS 
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS...AND ALSO FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 71W-74W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OVER THE S COAST OF PUERTO 
RICO. SMOKE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 86W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE 
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AS A WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE BUILDS W OVER THE WRN TROPICAL ATLC. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SMALL UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA OF THE W ATLC W OF 61W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 
50W-61W SUPPORTING A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N56W WITH A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 30N54W 26N55W TO 24N58W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM OF THE COLD 
FRONT. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N49W 25N49W 
20N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 
NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITHIN AN 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING E DEVELOPING A SECOND 
LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR 28N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 11N E OF 45W ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH 
NEAR THE AZORES. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MONTALVO/WALTON