000
AXNT20 KNHC 231131
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 16W...
TO 2S25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...TO 5N48W...INTO
NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W...AND
FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 42W AND 54W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N85W IN THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE EAST 
OF 93W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT 
RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO CENTRAL CUBA BEYOND THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 84W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS STREAM NORTHEASTWARD FROM NICARAGUA 
TO JUST TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA...PASSING ON TOP OF MUCH OF CUBA 
AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 30N78W...ACROSS NORTHERN 
FLORIDA...AND BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. 

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N76W 10N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N IN COLOMBIA 
TO 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO IN 
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 76W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N56W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N57W...TO 19N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS/OFFSHORE WATERS OF HISPANIOLA
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. HIGH CLOUDS CLEARLY 
FOLLOW A PATH IN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST
TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA TO 19N57W..TOWARD THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE 31N56W 19N58W TROUGH...CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 21N40W
AND 23N26W...AND THEN MOVING TOWARD THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N56W TO 28N58W AND 24N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 
55W/56W FROM 20N TO 26N. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER IS NEAR 33N29W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND THE 
CENTER AS IT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 18N 
BETWEEN 14W AND 44W. NO EASILY-DISCERNIBLE PRECIPITATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
33N40W TO 29N44W TO 25N51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT