000 AXNT20 KNHC 222350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 3N30W 1N40W 2N50W INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 3N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-7N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N W OF 40W...INCLUDING THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING... PROVIDING DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N84W. WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...SE WINDS 10-20 KT ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF 86W. HAZY SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF W OF 93W ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...DUE TO SEVERAL WILD FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS INDICATED ON NOAA SSD FIRE PRODUCTS. A LESS DENSE AREA OF SMOKE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE E GULF. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST ARE REPORTING LOW CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2 SM DUE TO THE CONCENTRATION OF HAZE IN THIS REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA COVERING THE FAR SE GULF AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER W CUBA AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 23N. WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA COVERING THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER W CUBA AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE AREA W OF 80W UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL BASIN...BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST TROPICAL ATLC...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 70W-78. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THIS REGION OF CONVECTION...FROM 18N72W TO 11N75W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MON TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WED...AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS W OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN N ATLC WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING SW TO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION ALONG 32N62W TO 28N67W. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS FOUND FURTHER EAST...A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N BETWEEN 50W-63W...ASSOCIATED TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM THE SW ATLC INTO THE NE AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED SW OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...FROM 26N62W TO 21N69W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 55W S OF 15N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 50W...ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH TUE NARROWING ON WED. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATER THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA