000 AXNT20 KNHC 220612 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH VENEZUELA NOW IS ALONG 71W/72W TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MARACAIBO...FROM VENEZUELA INTO COLOMBIA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE VENEZUELA BORDER NEAR 5N71W. IT IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN THE WAVE SOLELY FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT HELP MUCH EITHER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE MAY BE ELIMINATED FROM THE 22/0600 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S44W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W...AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 18W AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LIBERIA TO GUINEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N13W 6N25W 6N46W 11N54W 11N60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS BEEN COVERING THIS AREA FOR THE LAST 4 TO 5 DAYS. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW HAD BEEN PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE U.S.A. WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW IS THAT THE EASTERN U.S.A. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH ITS OWN TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME COMPARATIVELY CUT OFF FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CENTRAL U.S.A. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N86W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS FROM THE 1017 MB HIGH CENTER WESTWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS CONNECTED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY IN THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM HAITI TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT WAS IN THE EASTERN U.S.A. HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 38N66W TO 33N70W TO 26N75W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 29N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N53W 26N57W 20N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 47W AND 71W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 23N34W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT