000
AXNT20 KNHC 210632 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2011

CORRECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W TO THE SOUTH 
OF 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN VENEZUELA FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 64W
AND 69W. 

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE BORDER OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 5N20W
3N30W 3N42W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO THE AFRICA
COAST BETWEEN 1W AND 5W...FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W...
FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 
44W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 84W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO 
THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE 
EAST OF 80W. SOME PRECIPITATION HAD BEEN FALLING NEAR 26N ALONG 
THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. A SEPARATE UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC PATTERN IS TO THE NORTH OF 31N/32N BETWEEN 97W 
AND 112W IN THE U.S.A. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPANS INTERIOR 
MEXICO. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO HONDURAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE 
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
20N63W 16N67W 10N72W NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO. THE PRECIPITATION
IS ABLE TO GROW IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL 
HISPANIOLA TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 7N72W. RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM NICARAGUA INTO HONDURAS...IN 
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 65W...AND FROM THE AREA OF THE EXTREME 
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS AND 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 84W...AND 
COVERING ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 31N
BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W. ONE 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 22N TO 30N. A SECOND 
SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 34N45W TO 30N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N64W 25N59W 30N56W. THE PRECIPITATION IS 
ABLE TO GROW IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N 
BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT