000 AXNT20 KNHC 201136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGER THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN VENEZUELA FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WEST CENTRAL VENEZUELA ALONG 70W FROM 6N TO 7N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 3N30W 3N37W...PASSING THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W IN THE WATERS OFF THE COAST FROM LIBERIA TO SIERRA LEONE...AND FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 21W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 85W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC PATTERN IS ORGANIZING ITSELF IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SPANS INTERIOR MEXICO. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO HONDURAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG 69W/70W FROM 14N TO 23N PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 73W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 14N TO 20N PASSING RIGHT ON TOP OF JAMAICA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 64W...AND FROM THE AREA OF THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS AND 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 83W...AND COVERING ABOUT THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 26W AND 50W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 60W FROM 20N TO 32N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 69W/70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N47W...TO 30N47W 27N50W 25N53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT