000
AXNT20 KNHC 191102
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N. THE WAVE STRADDLES THE BORDER OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER 
THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.

...THE ITCZ...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ
COVERS THE AREA FROM 10S TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 25W. NUMEROUS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO THE COAST
OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 8W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 7N
BETWEEN 10W AND 21W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 2N27W 1N38W. STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CLUSTERS FROM 6N TO 7N
BETWEEN 28W AND 29W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W...AND
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS 
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 27W AND 47W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

FROM INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND 90W. BROAD SURFACE 
LOW PRESSURE SPANS INTERIOR MEXICO. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST 
ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO CENTRAL 
MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND 
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST 
OF 60W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W TO 31N74W. THE FRONT 
IS DISSIPATING FROM 31N74W TO 28N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN CLUSTERS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 
70W...AND AROUND THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE 
EAST OF 74W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W 
AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 71W/72W
FROM NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA/NORTHEASTERN COASTAL 
COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 60W...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 38N41W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
A 1022 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N46W...PASSING 
THROUGH 33N46W TO 31N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
31N48W TO 27N49W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 40W
AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 9N41W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT