000
AXNT20 KNHC 190558
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N. THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W.

...THE ITCZ...

A MONSOON TROUGH IS IN AFRICA ALONG 16N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN
TO 13N21W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N22W 2N31W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
ALONG 36W TO 1S45W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN AFRICA
FROM 2N4W TO 10N16W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 6N 
BETWEEN 19W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE CLOSE
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ELSEWHERE FROM 1N47W TO 7N52W...
SEPARATE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TROPICAL
WAVE. 

...DISCUSSION...

FROM INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
ACROSS MEXICO...TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND 90W.  BROAD SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE SPANS INTERIOR MEXICO. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST 
ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO CENTRAL 
MEXICO...THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO GUATEMALA AND 
HONDURAS. 

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND 
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST 
OF 60W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO 30N76W IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 30N76W TO LAKE 
OKEECHOBEE AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LAKE ON THE GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N71W TO ANDROS ISLAND
IN THE BAHAMAS TO THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN CLUSTERS TO THE NORTH OF 
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM CUBA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 
24N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 
10N TO THE EAST OF 74W. MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS 
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 71W/72W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 60W...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A 38N42W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 1025 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N50W...PASSING 
THROUGH 32N44W TO 26N47W AND TO 20N49W. LOW LEVEL STRATIFORM 
CLOUDS WITH NO OBVIOUS AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH 
OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND 
SOUTHWEST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 24N39W...
TO 16N53W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 
22N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT