000 AXNT20 KNHC 171741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH XXXX UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N THROUGH FRENCH GUIANA MOVING W AT 5 KT. IT IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE N OF THE ITCZ AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... A MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM GUINEA AT 10N13W TO 5N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 10W-15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N25W TO N BRAZIL AT 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 41W-43W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 46W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A QUASI-STATIONARY 1001 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N80W AND EXTENDS SW TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 80W. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 95W-99W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE MOSTLY 10 KTS FROM VARIOUS DIRECTIONS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF...THUS THE AREA IS VOID OF ANY HIGH CLOUD. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT SE TO S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT A NEW SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER HAITI AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W FROM 13N-19N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES THE MONA PASSAGE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N TO BEYOND 20N BETWEEN 63W-67W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA AND THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 63W-76W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF HAITI. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N72W TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N73W 24N76W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 72W-76W. A LONG SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N42W TO 26N50W TO N OF THE MONA PASSAGE AT 20N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE MONA PASSAGE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 62W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO RETROGRADE TO THE W AND DISSIPATE TO A SURFACE TROUGH WITH SHOWERS. ALSO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH MORE SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA/MONTALVO