000
AXNT20 KNHC 150008 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N30W EQ40W 1S48W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 16W-18W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-5S BETWEEN 
30W-42W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N84W 25N90W 24N98W. 
MOST OF THE FRONT IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH 
EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF ALONG 30N81W 
25N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE 
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 18N-21N 
BETWEEN 95W-98W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE OVER THE 
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SE GULF 
TO SW FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR 
WEATHER. 10-15 KT NW SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 
KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. CONSIDERABLE 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 
SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF W OF 
95W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 
HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO N COLOMBIA TO 
PANAMA ALONG 19N67W 14N70W 9N80W 9N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 
14N-18N BETWEEN 61W-67W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER MOST OF VENEZUELA FROM 
4N-11N BETWEEN 60W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. A 
70-90 KT TROPICAL JETSTREAM IS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N79W TO 
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N W 
OF 78W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 
26N74W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. FURTHER E... SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 
48W-54W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 
15N53W. A 1012 MB LOW IS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N20W 
MOVING NE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS TWO LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE 
CENTERED AT 33N57W AND 35N21W PRODUCING AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN 
OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF 
WEATHER FEATURES OVER THE WESTERLIES N OF 25N FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA