000
AXNT20 KNHC 141804
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA TO 4N20W 
3N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W...AND INTO EXTREME 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 5N18.5W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W...FROM
7S TO 6N BETWEEN 28W AND 43W...AND FROM 2S TO 5N BETWEEN
49W AND 53W IN FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SPANS THE U.S.A. BETWEEN 
80W AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO 
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH TEXAS. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERTORMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS ARE 
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 85W FROM 25N TO 28N. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER LAND FROM JUST TO THE 
NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WINDWARD 
PASSAGE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE 
MONA PASSAGE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N82W IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N70W...TO 11N77W IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING BEYOND 10N84W IN PANAMA. IT IS POSSIBLE 
THAT THE TROUGH IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE MONSOONAL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
TO THE WEST OF 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MULTIPLE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC 
FLOW...REALLY ONLY TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 50W.
A 997 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N61W. A DISSIPATING 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
ALONG 47W/48W PASSING THROUGH 32N TO 30N. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 32N45W 24N60W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
BEYOND 30N80W...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
17N62W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 24N50W TO 32N39W. BROAD SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW 
IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 30W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 15N37W 26N36W BEYOND 32N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT