000 AXNT20 KNHC 140554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0430 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N12W ALONG 5N20W 3N30W EQ37W 1N43W 2S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 11W-14W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 29W-40W...AND S OF 2N BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 26N89W...AS OF 0300 UTC. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IMPACTING TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 83W-86W. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW PUSHED OFF THE TEXAS COAST. DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPORTING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT STRONG SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NE GULF AND NRN FLORIDA AS THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE TEXAS COAST TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE BASIN AND REACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITHIN 24 HRS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER TROUGHING SITS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN WITH MOISTER CONDITIONS S OF 14N. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER ERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR ANGUILLA TO 13N74W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED MOISTURE VALUES IN THIS AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS...WITH STRONG ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY GUATEMALA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. EXPECT SURFACE TROUGHING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE LEVELS SUPPORTING CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH SITS OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST OVER THE FAR NRN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER LOW CONTINUES TO COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 36N60W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N58W TO 24N70W DEPICTING THE MAIN WIND SHIFT. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N53W TO 22N67W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS. A THIRD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 20N59W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS E OF THE THREE TROUGHS BETWEEN 47W-55W INFLUENCED MOSTLY BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER E...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 7N43W TO 36N39W SUPPORTING A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN 35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E ATLC ALONG 18W SUPPORTING A WEAK 1012 MB LOW W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 33N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON