000
AXNT20 KNHC 110001
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
8N13W SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 2N30W 2S40W TO NE BRAZIL COAST 
NEAR EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S TO THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-38W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N 
OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 21 UTC A 1016 MB HIGH LIES NE OF THE GULF NEAR 29N84W AND 
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER PARTS OF THE GULF. AT THE UPPER 
LEVEL A RIDGE WITH CURRENT AXIS AT 91W MOVES ACROSS THE GULF. 
THESE CONDITIONS AT LOW AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE 
PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WINDS FROM 
10-20 KT ARE OBSERVED WITH THE STRONGER WINDS BEING NW OF THE 
GULF W OF 89W. THIS SYNOPTIC WIND PATTERN AND THE HIGH PRESSURE 
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A SHEARLINE IS ANALYZED ALONG 
20N51W 19N60W 17N68W...THE SHEARLINE CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 
16N75W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE 
NE CARIBBEAN ALONG THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS...AFFECTING MAINLY THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. IN 24 HOURS THIS PRECIPITATION 
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AND OUT OF THE REGION. 
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO FOUND OVER THE FAR SW 
BASIN DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED TO THE CYCLONIC 
TURNING OF THE EASTERLY TRADES. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 80 NM ALONG THE COASTS OF 
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W AND THE 
COAST OF NICARAGUA S OF 13N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE NW BASIN 
N OF 16N W OF 68W SUPPRESSING ANY AREAS OF CONVECTION IN THIS 
REGION. LIGHT WINDS OF 10-15 KT CHARACTERIZE THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NW 
ATLANTIC IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N55W 26N60W 24N69W 24N74W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEHIND THIS FRONT A 1016 MB HIGH IS ANCHORED 
NEAR 29N77W WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
IS LOCATED NEAR 25N43W AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N IN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. FARTHER EAST TWO TROUGHS REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARE ANALYZED. THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
30N28W TO 25N30W. THE SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 21N36W 19N39W 
17N42W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION 
ASSOCIATED TO THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS.        


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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RAMOS