000 AXNT20 KNHC 101734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 08N13W 03N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W THEN ALONG 03S38W AND ALONG THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL TO THE EQUATOR AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 05W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 40W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF OVERALL FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA... SE OF THE HIGH CENTER...SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING...WITH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGING VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS LOCATED ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS AND OVERALL FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W AND A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. FARTHER EAST OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN... TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED AND THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOCUSED ALONG A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W TO 16N72W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 17N E OF 68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT CONTINUE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THIS SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 13N W OF 77W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 37N64W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING SW ALONG 28N60W 25N70W TO 26N76W THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 63W. MEANWHILE NW OF THE FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N77W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS NW TO THE AZORES. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...A FILLING REMNANT 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 35N37W AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N28W TO 30N28W THEN SOUTHWARD AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 26N30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY. THE AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING IS BRIDGED BETWEEN A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N45W AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 32N22W TO 20N30W. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING AND POOLS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N33W TO 20N38W TO 16N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E-NE FROM 18N62W TO 21N53W AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 47W-61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN