000 AXNT20 KNHC 101056 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 4N17W 1N30W 2N38W 00N45W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N E OF 3W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 2N BETWEEN 41W AND THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-29W AND FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W. S TO SE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 92W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN FRI THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-85W. A SURFACE TROUGH/ SHEAR AXIS IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W TO 14N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 16N E OF 73W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-84W LEAVING THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI AND MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. FRESH EASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N53W EXTENDING ALONG 27N59W TO 25N67W. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 32N59W ALONG 27N66W TO 27N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 20N-30N. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF 32N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N28W TO 30N28W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N31W TO 18N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 21N55W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180/200 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WED THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT THEN DRIFT SE OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT. GALE CENTER ACROSS NW ATLC WILL MOVE SE AND PASS JUST NE OF BERMUDA WED AND THU...INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS AND GENERATING LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW