000 AXNT20 KNHC 100545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 8N12W 3N22W 1N30W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE JUST INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 9W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 27N87W.SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 95W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE NE GULF THROUGH FRI MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN LATE FRI THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE RETURN FLOW DIMINISHING OVER THE W GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW GULF SAT MORNING AND REACH FROM MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI TO CORPUS CHRISTI SAT EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN IS MAINTAINING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W. A BAND OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH...IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST LEEWARD ISLANDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO NEAR 16N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-84W LEAVING THE SE AND NW CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE PRODUCING DEBRIS CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERING THE AREA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 64W-71W INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH WED. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT N THROUGH WED AND WEAKEN. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT FRESH EASTERLIES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-80W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W EXTENDING ALONG 28N57W TO 25N66W. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 31N61W ALONG 28N63W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE BOTH FRONTS. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 20N-30N. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF 32N SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N28W TO 26N30W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 21N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH...WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 20N47W 19N57W ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WED THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. THE RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN DRIFT S-SE OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS THROUGH LATE WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW