000 AXNT20 KNHC 091753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 07N12W 02N33W TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 08W-17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SUPPORTIVE OF OVERALL FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AS A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W. WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA...SE OF THE HIGH CENTER...E TO SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING...WITH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW NOTED ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGING VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY WESTERLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS LOCATED ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS AND OVERALL FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W AND A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. FARTHER EAST OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN... TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED AND THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOCUSED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 18N55W TO 16N65W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING MANY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THIS SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 13N W OF 75W. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGHING ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION NEAR 09N86W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST NEAR 40N65W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W EXTENDING SW ALONG 28N60W TO 25N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED W-NW OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 30N70W THEN WESTWARD TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 72W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 72W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND MOVE E OF 70W BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 35W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N30W TO 24N33W THAT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH SW TO 17N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD. AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N55W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N65W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 50W-62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE FROM 32N20W TO 16N29W THAT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS E OF 27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN