000 AXNT20 KNHC 091043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 5N8W 3N20W 1N31W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED/ NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 8W-14W INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 9W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 14W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 3N35W TO 2N42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NNW TO OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/ LOUISIANA BORDER. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E GULF E OF 84W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N85W WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 94W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL MEANDER THERE THROUGH THU MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT SW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON FRI WITH THE RETURN FLOW DIMINISHING OVER THE W GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ACROSS NE VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS TO SE NICARAGUA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N. A BAND OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM E TO W WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 14N77W THEN EXPANDING TO COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-84W LEAVING THE SE AND NW CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN DIMINISHING TUE. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TRADE WINDS ARE PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI EXCEPT BECOMING FRESH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TUE THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 52W TO OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING TO 27N62W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 26N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 20N-30N WITH A WEAK 1013 MB SE OF THE ABOVE FRONT NEAR 23N53W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 30W-45W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SYSTEM CONSISTING OF A 1004 MB LOW N OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W ALONG 27N37W TO 23N44W AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N29W TO 29N30W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 20N37W TO 16N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N50W ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A NEW COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY AND TUE THEN DRIFT E OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NE OF BERMUDA WED AND THU INCREASING THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SE UNITED STATES COAST LATE FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW