000 AXNT20 KNHC 090531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 6N9W 4N18W 1N26W ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-37W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND THE IVORY COAST S OF 6N W OF 3W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 15W-20W AND FROM 1N-3N E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NNW TO OVER E TEXAS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE FAR E GULF N OF 26N E OF 85W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N85W AND RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF MAINLY N OF 23N W OF 94W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL MEANDER THERE THROUGH THU MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT W OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS ON FRI WITH THE RETURN FLOW DIMINISHING OVER THE W GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ACROSS NE VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS TO SE NICARAGUA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. A BAND OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM E TO W WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W TO 14N75W THEN EXPANDING TO COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-84W LEAVING THE SE AND NW CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TRADE WINDS ARE PREVAILING ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI EXCEPT BECOMING FRESH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEGINNING LATER TODAY THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 55W TO OVER THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N58W EXTENDING ALONG 27N63W TO 26N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1015 MB HIGH IS W OF THE FRONT JUST E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N76W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 20N-30N. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 30W-45W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SYSTEM CONSISTING OF A 1004 MB LOW N OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N37W ALONG 29N36W TO 25N42W AND A DOMINATE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N31W ALONG 22N35W TO 16N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE DOMINATE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 25N. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N51W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE THEN DRIFT E OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WED. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NE OF BERMUDA WED AND THU INCREASING THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW