000
AXNT20 KNHC 081719
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 1S31W 1S46W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
LIBERIA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 4W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS CENTERED FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 17W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE AXIS E OF 40W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W. 
5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER FLORIDA AND 
THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIR WEATHER. 10-15 KT SE-S SURFACE 
WINDS ARE W OF 90W. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE W GULF HAS 
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF W OF 
95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. 
EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT W TO 28N88W IN 24 HOURS 
WITH CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW CENTER OVER E 
PANAMA AND NW COLOMBIA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 75W-80W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA 
FROM 80W-84W BETWEEN 8N-11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND 
NICARAGUA...E HONDURAS...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND S BELIZE. 
MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W. 
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD TO E HONDURAS WITH MOIST 
SE FLOW S OF THE AXIS AND DRY NW FLOW N OF THE AXIS. EXPECT... 
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND CONTINUED SHOWERS 
AND CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH 
AMERICA.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N62W TO 28N65W TO THE 
N BAHAMAS AT 26N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF 
FRONT. A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N42W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 32N39W 27N40W 24N44W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITH 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE 
TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N33W 24N35W 19N40W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THIS TROUGH. A 1021 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N19W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVEL MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN THE 
BAHAMAS AND W AFRICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD 
FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA