000 AXNT20 KNHC 070547 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE IN WEST AFRICA ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 1N30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS E OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 110 KT JET STREAK PASSING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. EMBEDDED IN THIS SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE S-EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N82W TO 26N84W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 24N90W CONTINUING SSW AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 25N. SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF THE BOUNDARY AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. AN ELONGATED AREA OF CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-16N E OF 74W. WITHIN THIS AREA OF MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...WEST OF THE PANAMA CANAL. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE SRN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF THE S-EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF 55W. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE LOW REFLECTION...AN OCCLUDED 1010 MB LOW NEAR 33N48W. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE OUTERMOST SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N40W 23N43W 17N50W CONTINUING AS A SHEAR LINE TO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N60W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS E OF THIS TROUGH N OF 22N BETWEEN 32W-40W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 30N46W 25N50W 22N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 19N. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 30N52W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N32W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E ATLC SUPPORTING A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA