000 AXNT20 KNHC 061113 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE IN WEST AFRICA ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 1N30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS BRINGING WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. AT SURFACE...REMNANT ENERGY LEFT FROM THE DISSIPATED STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL PRODUCING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 87W-91W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NE BASIN...ANALYZED FROM 30N84W TO 25N86W. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING MOSTLY THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 86W. CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS CARRYING OUT A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. AS THIS SYSTEM REACHES THE NE GULF BASIN...THE ACTIVITY IN THE N-EASTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. COMPUTER MODELS ALSO INDICATE A 90 KT UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...POSSIBLY INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ON THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE N-WESTERN GULF IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 73W AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND INTO THE SW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND W OF JAMAICA DUE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE TO NEAR 13N76W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN 25 NM OF THE COAST OF THESE TWO COUNTRIES BETWEEN 81W-83.5W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH/OCCLUDED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NE STATES. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA ALONG 32N64W TO 27N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FOUND NEAR THE COAST OF SE FLORIDA FROM 24N-26N W OF 79W DUE TO REMNANT ENERGY LEFT FROM A DISSIPATED BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOOSE MOMENTUM AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...A SECONDARY PUSH OF ENERGY WILL ENTER THE WEST ATLC WITH CONVECTION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS MOVES OFFSHORE SUPPORTING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE LOW REFLECTION...AN OCCLUDED 1007 MB LOW NEAR 32N48W. A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NE AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND ENTERS OUR AREA AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N42W TO 26N44W...BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 23N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 25N53W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM E OF THE TROUGH S OF 27N. AS THESE BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE... THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE N OUT OF OUR DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 33N48W IN 24 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N30W. A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N18W TO 29N25W WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA