000 AXNT20 KNHC 060542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE IN WEST AFRICA ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 1N30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS BRINGING WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. AT SURFACE...REMNANT ENERGY LEFT FROM THE DISSIPATED STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL PRODUCING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 89W-92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EAST BASIN...ANALYZED FROM 29N83W TO 25N85W. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING MOSTLY THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 85W. CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS CARRYING OUT A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. AS THIS SYSTEM REACHES THE NE GULF BASIN...THE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. COMPUTER MODELS ALSO INDICATE A 90 KT UPPER JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE NEXT 6 -12 HOURS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 73W AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND INTO THE SW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND W OF JAMAICA DUE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE TO NEAR 13N76W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NW ATLC WITH A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA ALONG 32N65W TO 27N70W DISSIPATING FROM THIS POINT THE COAST OF S-ERN FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOOSE MOMENTUM AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...A SECONDARY PUSH OF ENERGY WILL ENTER THE WEST ATLC WITH CONVECTION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS MOVES OFFSHORE SUPPORTING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING A PAIR OF 1009 MB LOWS NEAR 27N55W AND 30N49W RESPECTIVELY. WHILE THE FIRST LOW LACKS OF CONVECTION AND WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN WITHIN 200 NM E AND NE OF THE SECOND LOW. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE N OUT OF OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N48W IN 24 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA