000
AXNT20 KNHC 052333
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT THU MAY 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 1N30W EQ40W EQ50W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 14W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N 
BETWEEN 43W-49W.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER S 
FLORIDA FROM 26N80W TO 25N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON 
RADAR OVER S FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. 
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. 10 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
SURFACE HIGH TO DOMINATE OVER THE GULF. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS 
SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE OVER VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA 
RICA. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA 
AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW IS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
BROKEN HIGH CLOUD OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. EXPECT LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO S FLORIDA 
NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 
1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S 
FROM THE LOW ALONG 26N54W 24N58W 25N61W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N53W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 41W-44W. EXPECT THE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH 
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...W 
OF 55W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA