000 AXNT20 KNHC 051740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAY 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 4N21W 1N33W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-17W...FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-29W...AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION DOMINATES THE THE GULF. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN ACROSS THE SE GULF AT 05/1500 UTC AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA FROM MIAMI TO S OF NAPLES ALONG 26N83W TO 24N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N88W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER E KENTUCKY. THE FRONT OVER SE GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE E GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN DRIFT E OVER FLORIDA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AREA THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NE TO HAITI COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN NARROWING A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW ALONG 15N76W TO THE SE COAST OF NICARAGUA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT W OF A LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. THE E/W UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF UPPER TROUGH DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 70W AND COUPLED WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE GENERATING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM 16N55W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA TO THE GULF OF VENEZUELA INCLUDING BARBADOS. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BANK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST S OF 11N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 68W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 05/1500 UTC ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W EXTENDING ALONG 28N75W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR MIAMI WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE COLD FRONT. A DEEP LAYERED LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 40W-60W WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N52W SUPPORTING A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N54W AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING NE TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N44W ALONG 30N43W TO 27N44W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 21N50W. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SECOND 1010 MB LOW NEAR 28N56W THAT IS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTRAL 1008 MB LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N50W TO 31N48W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N28W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N26W ALONG 23N38W TO 18N53W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI MORNING AS IT SHIFTS E. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST FRI NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA SAT AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE SUN MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW