000 AXNT20 KNHC 051050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 9N13W... CONTINUING S WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 1N30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-40W...AND WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD CARRYING OUT A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N82W TO 23N88W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 22N93W TO 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100/150 NM W OF THE BOUNDARY. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SW COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 25N. NE WINDS 10-20 KT ARE OBSERVED N THE BOUNDARY. E WINDS 5-10 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 73W AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND INTO THE SW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND N OF JAMAICA DUE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 12N80W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD CARRYING OUT A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE WEST ATLC INTO OUR AREA ALONG 32N71W TO 28N76W INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DETACH FROM THE STATIONARY SECTION AND CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR SE FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE LOW REFLECTION...AN OCCLUDED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 30N52W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NE AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AND ENTERS OUR AREA AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N42W TO 25N46W TO 20N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 25N53W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES S TO NEAR 28N52W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE E ATLC...ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 28N30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA