000
AXNT20 KNHC 050533
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT THU MAY 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N14W...S 
WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 2N30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-7S W 
OF 25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 23W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD 
CARRYING A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE ALONG 26N82W 24N86W 22N93W 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 90 NM WNW OF THE FRONT W OF 85W. A FEW ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SW COASTAL WATERS OF THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 26N. NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED N 
THE FRONT. E WINDS 5-10 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER 
REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE EXTREME 
SOUTHERN GULF PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE 
ON THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S 
OF 16N E OF 72W AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
WITHIN THIS AREA OF MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS 
AREA OF CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE 
TRADE WINDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS. THIS AREA OF 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND 
EXTEND INTO THE SW BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF 
HISPANIOLA AND N OF JAMAICA DUE TO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WITH AXIS ALONG THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 12N80W. THE 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND WESTERN HONDURAS. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD 
CARRYING A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE 
WEST ATLC INTO OUR AREA ALONG 32N74W BECOMING WEAK STATIONARY 
NEAR 28N78W INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DETACH FROM THE STATIONARY SECTION AND 
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST 
ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS 
NEAR SE FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE LOW REFLECTION...AN 
OCCLUDED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 31N52W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS 
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM 32N42W TO 24N47W TO 20N54W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO 
SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES S TO NEAR 28N52W. SURFACE 
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE E ATLC...ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB 
HIGH NEAR 32N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA