000 AXNT20 KNHC 032332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N10W 4N21W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-24W AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 90W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/2100 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ACROSS PENSACOLA FLORIDA ALONG 24N93W THEN S TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO JUST W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS S OF 20N. SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM W LOUISIANA THROUGH TEXAS TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATING THE E GULF GIVING THE AREA E OF THE FRONT CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TONIGHT AND FROM SW FLORIDA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE WED THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE SE GULF THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA S TO ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT W OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO THE PANAMA CANAL. THE E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 73W AND COUPLED WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N72W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE TO 14N59W INCLUDING BARBADOS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NE NICARAGUA/NE HONDURAS MAINLY FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 83W-85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY S THROUGH WED NIGHT ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS N OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE HAS SET UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-65W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N48W ALONG 26N51W TO 23N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N31W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY S AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED NIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF N FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA LATE THU THEN DISSIPATE FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ON SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW