000 AXNT20 KNHC 030533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W ...S WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W EQ30W 1S40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 4S-8S BETWEEN 28W-35W. A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF WEST AFRICA THROUGH LIBERIA AND COTE D'IVOIRE IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EAST TEXAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE STATES AND ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WESTERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W CONTINUING SSE TO S OF TAMPICO ALONG 25N95W 20N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE BOUNDARY N OF 26N. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING OIL PLATFORMS INDICATE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SSE WINDS 10-20 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE E OF THE FRONT AS WELL...DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. WITHIN THIS REGION OF ACTIVE WEATHER...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA...WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 20N68W TO 14N70W. THE TROUGH AXIS LACKS OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE AT SURFACE...WHICH IS BETTER DEPICTED ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINE GFS MODEL ANALYSIS. THIS SYSTEMS IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A COMBINATION OF A BROAD AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INCLUDING THE WATERS S OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 71W...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE TRADES ARE BANKING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING ITS SURFACE REFLECTION...AN OCCLUDED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 34N57W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM 32N50W TO 27N53W TO 23N60W. THEN...A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE AXIS CONTINUES FROM 23N60W TO 23N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N50W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REST OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE WEST ATLC NEAR 32N72W AND A BROAD 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE EAST ATLC NEAR 35N37W. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND INTO THE ATLC S OF 21N BETWEEN 67W-72W FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED IN CARIBBEAN SEA DISCUSSION. CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA