000
AXNT20 KNHC 022344
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N30W EQ37W 2S43W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 1N-7N 
BETWEEN 8W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N 
BETWEEN 17W-24W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E TEXAS TO THE W GULF 
OF MEXICO TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N94W 26N96W 23N98W 
23N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 93W-95W. 20 KT N WINDS ARE N OF 
THE FRONT. SMOKE AND HAZE ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER 
THE W GULF W OF 93W TO THE COLD FRONT. 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW 
AND FAIR WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF THE 
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
INLAND TEXAS SUPPORTING THE FRONT. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF E OF THE FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS 
FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE 
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA AND THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER VENEZUELA...AND COLOMBIA. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA THAT MAY 
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 
11N-15N BETWEEN 59W-64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL  
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N74W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W 
T0 26N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 
1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N62W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS SE TO W AFRICA NEAR 23N15W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N58W 
SUPPORTING THE ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 32N47W TO 
25N55W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC...W OF 55W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA