000 AXNT20 KNHC 021734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 4N17W 3N23W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 5W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA S OF THE ITCZ TO THE EQUATOR AND WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 12W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 02/1500 UTC EXTENDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM JUST S OF GALVESTON TO BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE THEN INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT AND W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN AXIS N ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SE LOUISIANA GIVING THE GULF W TO SW FLOW COVERING THE W GULF MAINLY W OF 87W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM N ALABAMA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA TO 28N90W. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF CENTERED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN GIVING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO TUE MORNING AND FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE SE GULF THU. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF ON TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W CENTERED ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT W OF 80W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N67W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 17N68W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W AND COUPLED WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM 14N-20N E OF 80W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND S OF 14N E OF 65W OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF W PANAMA TO NE NICARAGUA AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH IN THE MONA PASSAGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY W THROUGH TUE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THEN DISSIPATE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL BUILD S ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY TUE AND MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 75W CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 50W-75W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W ALONG 27N62W TO 25N70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE AND CLEARING SKIES ARE W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF MARYLAND. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 37N42W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD S AND SE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE THEN SHIFT E WED AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED MORNING AND MOVING W TO JUST W OF BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW