000 AXNT20 KNHC 011755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 05N10W 02N20W 01N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W THEN ANALYZED INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 01S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 15W-27W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 33W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM 19N95W TO 30N90W AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS SE OF A LINE FROM 30N86W TO 23N98W WITH ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 32N79W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W WITH E TO SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNS OF SMOKE OVER THE W GULF MAINLY W OF 90W WITH SURFACE AND SHIPS OBSERVATIONS INDICATING SMOKE/HAZE/FOG FROM THE MANY FIRES OVER S MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH LATE MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS LATE MON AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 80W. AT THE SURFACE...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW CONTINUES AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE TRADES ARE BANKING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N69W OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO/EASTERN MONA PASSAGE TO 19N66W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 64W-71W. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ADVECTING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 57W-62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N64W THEN S-SW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N63W BECOMING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT NEAR 28N68W TO 27N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILING WEST TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 26N80W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE OF 25N61W BY MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC THIS MORNING IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N45W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 33N10W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER NW AFRICA. W-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 18W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SMM/PAW