000 AXNT20 KNHC 011043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 07N12W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W THEN ANALYZED IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ALONG 01S26W 02S35W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 18W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM 19N96W TO 30N93W AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 32N78W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WITH E TO SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT THAT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING FRONT...CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE GULF COAST AS A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED WEST OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 18N E OF 80W. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW CONTINUES AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 14N69W OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO TO 19N66W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 64W-72W. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ADVECTING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WESTWARD ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 56W-64W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 42N63W INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N66W THEN S-SW TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR BERMUDA THEN STRETCHING SW TO 29N70W AND CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO EAST OF THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILING WEST TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 27N80W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE OF 28N63W BY LATE SUNDAY WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC THIS MORNING IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N46W. MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 33N11W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 32N09W TO 25N14W TO 21N21W. W-NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 21W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN