000
AXNT20 KNHC 302336
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W EQ19W 3S25W 1S35W 2S45W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 
5W-7W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE 
FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 11W-13W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 4N-4S BETWEEN 13W-27W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE 
GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER S 
FLORIDA S OF 27N. SMOKE AND HAZE ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
OVER THE W GULF W OF 88W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONT OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W 
GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS AT THE SURFACE FOR...CONTINUED HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW 
OVER THE GULF WITH A COLD FRONT INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER VENEZUELA...AND COLOMBIA. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND CUBA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES 
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 
65W... AND OVER SOUTH AMERICA S OF 12N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N67W T0 S FLORIDA AT 
25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1029 
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N48W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N62W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS SE TO 30N25W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC AND CANARY ISLANDS FROM 32N12W TO 28N13W TO 25N20W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
30N55W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO  
OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 31N17W SUPPORTING THE SHOWERS OVER THE 
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT THE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD 
FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 32N61W TO THE S BAHAMAS WITH 
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...W 
OF 50W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA