000
AXNT20 KNHC 292345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 1N30W 4S40W EQ50W 
...BECOMING INDISTINCT AT EQ38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 8W-11W...FROM 4N-7N 
BETWEEN 15W-18W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 34W-37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI 
AT 31N88W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS WITH FAIR WEATHER 
ARE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S 
FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N85W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA S OF 27N. RESIDUAL BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF. TEMPERATURES DROPPED 10 DEGREES 
TO 75 F ALONG THE FRONT OVER S FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE 
FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE TO THE W ATLANTIC 
...AND FOR HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW TO SET IN WITH POSSIBLE 
SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND 
OVER VENEZUELA...AND COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA E OF 93W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS 
AND GUATEMALA FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 86W-92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL 
FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N48W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N70W. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS SE TO W AFRICA AT 21N17W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
SUPPORTING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT THE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N65W TO 
THE N BAHAMAS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...W OF 50W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA