000
AXNT20 KNHC 291204
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 25W...TO 2S28W...BECOMING INDISTINCT. SCATTERED STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF AFRICA TO THE 
EAST OF 7W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...FROM 3N TO 5N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF 
WATERS...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THAT PART OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN
82W AND 85W ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N79W BEYOND 32N77W. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA...SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN 
HALF OF BELIZE AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS AND THE GULF
OF HONDURAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND THE JAMAICA CHANNEL. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER
BOTH AREAS. APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 54W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE LAST FEW
DAYS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N54W. 
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 44W 
AND 71W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. 
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N20W TO THE CANARY 
ISLANDS. THE BASE OF A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MOROCCO. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN MOROCCO TO THE NORTH 
OF 29N. PRECIPITATION ALSO IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO 
THE EAST OF 24W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF AFRICA.
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT