000
AXNT20 KNHC 271129
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 
21W...TO 4S28...RETURNING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...TO 1S40W.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 3W AND 13W...FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 14W
AND 15W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 19W AND 25W. DISORGANIZED 
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM 
KANSAS AND ARKANSAS TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW COVER ALABAMA AND POSSIBLY 
MISSISSIPPI STILL. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS OVER LAND COVER THE GULF WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE EAST OF 91W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE AREA. THIS SAME
CYCLONIC FLOW HAS COVERED THIS AREA FOR THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THIS 
AREA FINALLY DISSIPATED. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N65W 24N70W 30N73W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED
IN ORDER TO BE ALONG 60W/61W FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 16N.
THE CHANGE IN POSITIONING IS BASED ON WIND DATA AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 63W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 65W. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE 
IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW...TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS 
ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...IN THE COASTAL AND 
OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN PANAMA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
IN AN AREA OF SURFACE SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE WIND FIELD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 60W...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
31N26W...TO 27N30W TO 27N35W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 25N TO 33N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 10 BETWEEN 33W AND 80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT