000 AXNT20 KNHC 261123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 17W...TO 5S20W...7S25W...1S40W...INTO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 30W AND 31W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N15W 5N25W 5N39W 5N50W. TO THE EAST OF 20W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS GULF COAST...INTO THE WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE LAND AREAS FROM UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST AND MOST OF LOUISIANA BEYOND MISSISSIPPI. BROAD AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 79W FROM 23N TO 28N...COVERING ANDROS ISLAND AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE WATERS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 30N...BETWEEN 77W AND 81W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 64W AND 74W. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COVERED THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...AND 84W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE IN COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER AND 76W SIX HOURS AGO HAVE WEAKENED IN INTENSITY AS THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING. OTHER STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF OF URABA BETWEEN 77W AND 80W AT THE PANAMA COAST. THIS PRECIPITATION IS HAPPENING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 9N TO 14N IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MAY STAY INTACT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...LONG ENOUGH IN ORDER TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...FROM 15N TO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 63W AND 73W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 60W... ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 9N TO 14N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W FROM 8N TO 13N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N30W AND 18N35W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W 29N30W 25N37W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 25N37W TO 25N43W AND 29N49W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT