000
AXNT20 KNHC 260605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 
19W...TO 3S30W...RETURNING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W...TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 20W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N
BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN 
OKLAHOMA TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE WATERS OF THE 
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE LAND AREAS FROM
EAST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. BROAD AND 
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS FLORIDA...
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 
THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 66W AND THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 85W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 77W/78W FROM 23N TO 28N...COVERING 
ANDROS ISLAND AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS AND NEARBY ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 32N
BETWEEN 62W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO PARTS OF THE 
BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORDIA...AND 85W IN THE 
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COLOMBIA 
AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN THE
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER AND 76W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS 
HAPPENING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 
59W FROM 9N TO 13N IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...NEAR 
BARBADOS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION MAY STAY INTACT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD...LONG ENOUGH IN ORDER TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE 
ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...FROM 15N TO PUERTO 
RICO AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 63W AND 73W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 
16N BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 60W...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER...TO 24N32W AND 19N36W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W AND 24N37W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N 
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NOFTH OF 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT