000 AXNT20 KNHC 251754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N12W 02N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ALONG 01S27W TO 04S29W RESUMING NEAR 04S33W TO 01S41W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 15W-29W. AN EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 04N39W TO 01S41W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 35W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GENERALLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...SE WINDS DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN AS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 32N TO SW MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N91W. THE SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 06N50W TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W WITH MOSTLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES ARE PROVIDING RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE OCCURRING FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 66W-71W...AND FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 74W-77W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 28N78W TO 22N74W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N76W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NORTHWARD TO 27N75W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVERING THE AREA FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 72W-75W. THE MORE INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NW BAHAMAS AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE MAXIMUM MID-LEVEL DYNAMICAL LIFTING. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 50W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N60W. THE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. E OF 50W...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION NEAR 35N33W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW TO 27N40W THEN WESTWARD AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 27N48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN