000 AXNT20 KNHC 241748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 07N12W 02N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN INTO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 04S34W. THE ITCZ AXIS THEN PARALLELS THE BRAZIL COAST BETWEEN 36W-49W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 02W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 22W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 44W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 90W AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. W OF 90W ALOFT... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS BEING REPLACED BY RIDGING WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO THEN NE TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 32N92W. AT THE SURFACE...SE WINDS DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN AS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 30N TO EASTERN TEXAS. THE SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 06N35W TO 10N60W THEN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W. ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. AT THE SURFACE...MOSTLY LIGHT E-NE TRADES ARE PROVIDING RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING S OF 13N BETWEEN 67W-74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 16N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 58W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 68W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 35N60W TO 32N73W TO NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND E-NE WINDS DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 58W THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE E-SE OF THE BAHAMAS...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 23N70W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N71W THROUGH THE LOW TO 25N69W. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW AND EXHIBITS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 66W-74W. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N37W TO 26N56W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT REMAINS ALONG 32N BETWEEN 42W-50W AND TWO AREAS OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N48W TO 29N45W. THE WESTERN-MOST AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OCCURRING FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 50W-58W AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LOCATED TO THE NORTH ALONG 27N. THE OTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS OCCURRING FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 35W-42W AND IS ALSO LIKELY ENHANCED BY A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 45W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED E-SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN